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Buzdy › Commodities › Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)
CT

Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) — what the record actually shows

Stock
$80.13

What Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) actually is

This is a raw material traded on world markets; its price moves with real-world supply and demand.

Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) price chart

daily · live

Chart by TradingView. Every figure on this page is calculated on our own server from daily prices, not read off this chart.

The bottom line

Of 1,006 past one-year holding periods for Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb), 22% ended in profit. In the typical case $100 became $89. The worst year on record was -51% and the best was +39.1%. It scores 53/100 on our risk scale, which we call high — that is relative to the other assets on this site, not a judgement that it is safe.

Where Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) stands right now

plain English
  • Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) is up 7.14% over the past week, down 2.78% over a month and up 29.2% over a year.
  • It is trading ABOVE its 200-day average, which is the simplest definition of a long-term uptrend.
  • Momentum is neutral (RSI 51.8): no rush in either direction.
  • Against its own recent range it sits at 44% — about the middle.

This describes what has already happened. It is not a forecast, and it is not advice.

What moves Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)

the short list

Read each row as “when this rises”. These are tendencies that hold most of the time, not rules that hold every time — the measured correlations further down this page will sometimes disagree with them, and when they do, the measurement is the newer fact.

Fed interest rates
The biggest single driver. A precious metal pays no interest, so when rates rise, holding cash or bonds pays more and the metal looks worse by comparison. Rate rises - or just talk of them - usually push it down.
↓
usually down
The US dollar
Precious metals are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar usually means a lower price even when nothing about the metal itself has changed. The two normally move in opposite directions.
↓
usually down
Inflation data (CPI)
CPI is the monthly inflation number. A hotter-than-expected reading points to higher rates, which usually knocks the metal down. A softer reading usually lifts it. This is the release most likely to move it in a single minute.
↓
usually down
Jobs data (non-farm payrolls)
Released monthly, usually the first Friday. Strong employment gives the Fed room to keep rates high, which usually weighs on the metal; weak employment usually lifts it.
↓
usually down
US 10-year bond yields
Yields are what you earn for holding government debt. When they rise, the cost of holding an asset that pays nothing goes up, and the metal usually falls.
↓
usually down
War, crisis and market panic
The one driver that pushes the other way. When people are frightened they buy precious metals, which is why one can rise on a day when the rate picture says it should not.
↑
usually up
Central bank and ETF buying
Slow and steady rather than sudden. It rarely explains a single day, but sustained official buying is what sets the direction over a year.
↑
usually up

When not to trade

scheduled events

Nobody can tell you when to enter. What can be stated exactly is when scheduled US data lands, because those release times are fixed. Around them, price can move further in one minute than it does in a normal day, and a stop can be filled well past where it was placed.

US economic data
16:30
Dubai time · inflation (CPI), jobs, retail sales
Fed rate decision
22:00
Dubai time · eight times a year
Next jobs report
Fri 6 Nov
in 28 days · usually the first Friday
The one rule worth keeping: no new position from 30 minutes before a high-impact release until an hour after it. If a position is already open, make sure it has a stop. The calendar does not tell you what to buy — it tells you when to stand aside.

CPI and Fed meeting dates are set by the BLS and the Federal Reserve and move from month to month, so confirm the exact day on an economic calendar before you rely on it. Times above are converted automatically and stay correct through US daylight-saving changes. This is general information, not financial advice.

What Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) moves with

measured over 90 days

Nothing moves alone. These are the relationships we can actually measure from our own daily prices — −1 means they move in exact opposite directions, 0 means unrelated, +1 means they move together. A relationship holding today can break tomorrow.

The S&P 500 (US shares) — barely related right now
When shares are rising people feel safe and reach for risk; when they fall, money looks for somewhere to hide. That is why the relationship between shares and a safe-haven asset is worth watching.
+0.19
correlation
The US dollar — barely related right now
Gold, oil and most commodities are priced in dollars. When the dollar weakens, the same ounce costs more dollars — so the price rises without anything changing about the metal itself.
+0.11
correlation
Crude oil — barely related right now
Energy is the biggest single input to inflation, and inflation is one of the main reasons people buy gold.
+0.1
correlation
Bitcoin — barely related right now
Often called "digital gold". Whether the two actually move together is an argument — so here is the measurement rather than the opinion.
+0.09
correlation

What to watch — what could push it up or down

context, not a measurement
Interest rates and the Fed
Gold pays you nothing to hold it. When savings accounts and government bonds pay high interest, holding gold costs you that income, and gold usually struggles. When rates fall, that cost disappears and gold usually does better. Rate decisions are the single biggest scheduled event for gold.
Inflation
Gold is bought as protection against money losing value. High or rising inflation tends to increase demand — though the link is far looser year to year than people assume.
Central banks buying
Country central banks have been large net buyers of gold in recent years. This is steady, price-insensitive demand and it does not show up in any chart until after the fact.
War, crisis and elections
Gold is the classic panic asset. Sudden jumps very often trace to a geopolitical event rather than anything financial.
The dollar
Priced in dollars worldwide, so dollar strength and gold usually pull in opposite directions.

These are the forces that historically matter for this kind of asset. We are not claiming any of them is acting today — that is a judgement no honest site can make from a price chart alone.

Latest news

this market

Headlines come from public news feeds. We do not claim any of them caused a price move — that link is far easier to assert than to prove.

Learn to read Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) — step by step

basic → advanced

Work down in order. Each step explains one idea, then shows you what it says about Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) today. No jargon is used before it is explained.

  1. 1
    What you are actually looking at

    This is a raw material traded on world markets; its price moves with real-world supply and demand.

    Right now: $80.13.

  2. 2
    How to read a candle

    Each candle on the chart is one day. The thick body runs from where the day opened to where it closed; the thin wicks above and below show the highest and lowest prices reached during that day. Green means it closed higher than it opened, red means lower. A long wick means a price was reached and rejected — someone pushed, and the other side pushed back harder.

    Found on Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) recently:

    Strong up day on 7 Oct 2026 (the latest bar) — Almost no wick: it opened low, closed high and never looked back. On this asset it has appeared 100 times, and 5 days later the price was higher 30% of the time versus 47% on any random day — so here it has meant the opposite of the textbook.

    Shooting star on 23 Sep 2026 — Rallied during the day then gave it all back. Buyers tried and failed. On this asset it has appeared 50 times, and 5 days later the price was higher 42% of the time versus 47% on any random day — so on this asset it told you nothing.

    Strong down day on 16 Sep 2026 — Almost no wick: sellers held it down from open to close. On this asset it has appeared 121 times, and 5 days later the price was higher 52% of the time versus 47% on any random day — so on this asset it told you nothing.

  3. 3
    Is it in an uptrend or a downtrend?

    The simplest honest answer is the 200-day average — the average closing price of the last 200 days. Above it, the last year of buyers are mostly in profit and the trend is up. Below it, they are not. It is slow on purpose: it ignores noise.

    Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) is trading ABOVE its 200-day average.

  4. 4
    Has it moved too far, too fast?

    RSI scores the speed of recent moves from 0 to 100. Above 70 is called "overbought" — it has risen fast. Below 30 is "oversold". Neither is a signal to act: things that are rising fast often keep rising. It is a description, not an instruction.

    Today: RSI 51.8 (neutral).

  5. 5
    Is it cheap or expensive compared with itself?

    Take the highest and lowest price of the last few months and see where today sits between them. Near the bottom is "cheap" only relative to that range — a falling asset makes new lows all the way down. It answers "where am I", not "what next".

    Today sits at 62% of its 252-day range.

  6. 6
    Does any of this actually work here?

    This is the step almost every site skips. A signal is only useful if it beats what happens anyway. If an asset rose in 60% of all two-week periods, a signal that is "right 60% of the time" told you precisely nothing. We test every signal on this asset's own history and print the comparison — including when the answer is embarrassing.

    See "Have these signals actually worked" further down this page.

  7. 7
    What could move it that is not on the chart

    Price reacts to the world: interest rates, inflation, wars, regulation, company results. A chart records what already happened; it cannot tell you what is scheduled next week.

    See "What to watch" above for the forces that matter for this asset.

  8. 8
    Advanced: market structure

    Once the basics are comfortable, traders read the chart as a sequence of higher highs and higher lows (or the reverse), and watch where price broke that sequence. That is what our Smart Money view measures — structure breaks, the fair-value midpoint, and levels where large orders were likely filled. It is a way of reading a chart, not a law.

  9. 9
    The only rule that always applies

    Nothing above predicts anything. Size any position so that being completely wrong is survivable, and never put in money you cannot afford to lose. Everything on this page is a record of the past, published to help you think — not advice to buy or sell.

Where today sits 62% of 252-day range

If you had put $100 in — every past year

1,006 periods · from 1,258 days of prices
22% of one-year holding periods ended in profit. Every trading day is a starting point; we count what the next year did. This is history, not a forecast.
Bad year$68-32.2% · 1 in 10 worse
Typical$89-11.2% · median
Good year$117+17% · 1 in 10 better
1 -60%
47 -50%
82 -40%
156 -30%
239 -20%
255 -10%
72 0%
90 10%
50 20%
14 30%

Each bar counts how many one-year periods finished in that range. Red is a loss, green is a gain. Fees and spread are not included.

Risk score

53
high on our scale
out of 100 · 2 factors
Volatility 21
Track record 78

Higher means more can go wrong. This is not advice to buy or sell. Built from 2 factors — volatility, track record — and anything we cannot measure is left out rather than guessed. Compare it with care: coins are scored on up to six factors including supply, fall from peak, size and liquidity, so a low number here is a thinner claim than the same number on a coin. A low score does not mean safe — this page's own worst year is the better guide to that.

What the chart says today

RSI 1451.8 NEUTRAL vs upper band-4.5% MACDRISING Volume0× 30-DAY AVG 200-day trendABOVE

We calculate these on our own server from 1,258 days of prices, so the figures on this page are the same ones our assistant is given. Nothing is read off a picture.

Have these signals actually worked on Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)?

tested on its own history
RSI > 70 → price lower
Measured 14 days later. On any random day that happened 50% of the time, so this signal is 10 points worse than no signal at all — it pointed the wrong way here.
40%
80 times
RSI < 30 → price higher
Measured 14 days later. On any random day that happened 50% of the time, so this signal is only 4 points better — effectively no edge.
54%
46 times
Above upper Bollinger → price lower
Measured 14 days later. On any random day that happened 50% of the time, so this signal is only 6 points better — effectively no edge.
56%
77 times
Volume 2x average → move over 10%
Measured 14 days later. On any random day that happened 11% of the time, so this signal is only 5 points better — effectively no edge.
16%
173 times

Most sites show you a signal. We also show how often it was right, how often that would have happened anyway, and how many times it has ever occurred. A signal only tells you something when it beats the base rate by a clear margin — matching it means it told you nothing.

Smart Money view of Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)

market structure · 90-day range

Traders who follow “Smart Money Concepts” read a chart as a record of where big orders were filled rather than as a set of indicators. Every level below is measured from our own daily candles, and the rule that produced it is written next to it — nothing here is drawn by eye.

StructureBEARISH ZoneEQUILIBRIUM · 44% Last breakBOS DOWN
Premium or discount — is it expensive right now?
Over the last 90 days Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) has traded between 70.66 and 92.15. Halfway — what SMC calls equilibrium, or fair value — is 81.405. Today's 80.13 sits at 44% of that range, which is close to equilibrium: neither cheap nor expensive.
44%
of range
Break of Structure (BOS) — downward
On 29 Sep 2026 the price closed below 77.07, the last swing low. That continued the direction already in place, which SMC calls a break of structure — the trend doing what it was already doing.
BOS
29 Sep 2026
Liquidity sweep below a prior low
On 7 Oct 2026 the price pushed under 79.94 during the day but closed back above it. In plain words: the level was touched, the orders sitting there were filled, and the move did not hold. Traders call this a stop hunt. It is only ever visible after the fact.
79.94
level swept
Bearish order block
The last up candle before that break was on 28 Sep 2026, covering 79.06–79.06. SMC treats that band as where large orders were likely filled, and watches whether price reacts if it returns there. Treat it as a zone of interest, not a prediction.
79.06
to 79.06
Fair value gap (unfilled)
A gap is three days where the first day's range and the third day's range never overlap — the price moved so fast it skipped a band of prices. SMC expects those bands to be revisited. Nearest gap below: 77.13–77.23 (from 6 Oct 2026). Nearest gap above: 74.79–79.06 (from 29 Sep 2026).
GAP
unfilled
Has the cheap half actually led anywhere on Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)?
We tested the idea on this asset's own history: every past day where it sat in the discount half, checked 14 days later. From discount, price was higher 56% of the time (536 occasions). From premium, 46% (320 occasions). On any random day it was higher 50% of the time — that is the number both must beat to mean anything. The difference is small enough to be noise on this asset.
56%
from discount

Smart Money Concepts is a way of reading a chart, not a law of markets, and it has no academic backing. We show it because a lot of people trade by it and deserve to see it measured rather than preached. None of this is advice, and levels are computed from daily candles only.

How Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) compares

$100 · one year · same maths
Commodity Bad year Typical Good year Ended in profit
Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) (this page) $68 $89 $117 22%
Gold Futures (COMEX) $103 $124 $151 94%
Gold Spot (per ounce) $102 $129 $143 92%
Silver Futures (COMEX) $98 $125 $217 88%
Copper Futures (COMEX, $/lb) $88 $109 $135 73%
Platinum Futures (NYMEX) $92 $107 $193 69%
Coffee Futures (ICE, cents/lb) $71 $109 $172 59%

Showing 6 of 17. The full table, other holding periods and cross-market sorting are Pro features.

Everything above stays free
Pro adds the parts that take work rather than reading: all holding periods, the full comparison table across crypto and stocks, filtering by win rate and risk, and unlimited questions to the assistant.
See Pro

Common questions about Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)

answered from this page's figures

What is Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)?

This is a raw material traded on world markets; its price moves with real-world supply and demand.

Has Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) been profitable to hold for a year?

Across 1,006 past one-year holding periods, 22% ended in profit. The typical one-year outcome was -11.2%, the worst on record was -51% and the best was +39.1%. In money terms $100 typically became $89. This is a record of what already happened, not a forecast.

If I had invested $100 in Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb), what would have happened?

Taking every past starting day and holding for a year, the typical result turned $100 into $89. A bad year (the worst tenth) left $68 and a good year (the best tenth) $117.

How risky is Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)?

Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) scores 53 out of 100 on our risk scale, which we call high. That is relative to the other assets on this site, not a judgement that it is safe. The heaviest single factor is track record. Higher means more can go wrong. Nothing here is advice to buy or sell.

Is Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) expensive or cheap right now?

Compared with its own recent history, Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) sits at 62% of its 252-day range. Near the bottom is only "cheap" relative to that range — a falling asset makes new lows all the way down. It answers where it is, not what happens next.

Does RSI > 70 work on Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)?

We tested it on Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)'s own history. After RSI > 70, price lower happened 40% of the time within 14 days, across 80 occurrences. On any random day it happened 50% of the time, so on this asset the signal has pointed the wrong way.

Does RSI < 30 work on Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)?

We tested it on Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)'s own history. After RSI < 30, price higher happened 54% of the time within 14 days, across 46 occurrences. On any random day it happened 50% of the time, so on this asset the signal told you nothing.

What moves the price of Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)?

The forces that historically matter most are: Interest rates and the Fed, Inflation, Central banks buying, War, crisis and elections. Measured over the last 90 days, Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb) barely related right now the S&P 500 (US shares) (correlation 0.19).

Ask about Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb)

plain words · free

Answers are built from the same figures shown on this page. No question is too basic.

Not financial advice. We explain the figures; the decision is always yours.

What this page is, and is not. Every figure here is either a fact as of today or a count of what has already happened to Cotton Futures (ICE, cents/lb). Nothing on this page is a prediction, and none of it is advice to buy or sell. Past behaviour is not a promise about the future.

One caveat worth understanding. The holding periods we count start on every trading day, so they overlap heavily — yesterday's year and today's year share all but one day. That means they are not 1,006 independent experiments; a single long run up or down colours a great many of them at once. It is an honest picture of what holding this asset felt like, not a sample you can do statistics on. We do not show unlock dates, because the data source for them is not something we can verify for free, and we would rather leave a gap than guess. Buzdy is free to compare and does not take a commission on anything you do next.